Author Topic: FB IPO?  (Read 4271 times)

Offline mECHsLAVE

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FB IPO?
« on: May 29, 2012, 05:25:48 PM »
Just curious if anyone has any insight into the longterm health of FB stock?   It's looking ugly right now for the people who paid $40-45 share price when it opened.   I still think they'll be ok longterm, simply from the sheer volume of their worldwide userbase.    But apparently it's overvalued at the moment because it dropped almost 10% today alone to close at 28.84.     
-Jason

Saint Augustine, FL

Offline doghouse

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2012, 05:55:06 PM »
They got greedy.  They should have never issued all those addition shares at the 11th hour. 

Time will tell if FB is going to continue as the monster it is.  Remember MySpace? 

What is the real difference between FB and MySpace?  If a new social networking site comes along hipper and cooler than FB, what do you think will happen?

I read over the weekend that FB is trying to become a hardware company with their new smart phone project.  Sony and HP are both struggling with their smart phone products, and they are already hardware companies. 

Even if the rumors prove true and FB buys Nokia and creates a FacePhone, who is going to buy a crappy Nokia phone with the Facebook logo on it? 

Can you tell I don't like FB?  ;) LOL
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Offline John I

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2012, 06:36:22 PM »
LOL!  I am not a FB fan either.  I'd rather try to make money somewhere else.  Making money with FB would leave a bad taste in my mouth.   I'd probably feel different is I was the guy who painted a mural on the walls at FB Headquarters years ago and ended up with $180M in stock as a result.

Wanted to buy: 
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Offline mECHsLAVE

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2012, 07:29:51 PM »
How low before it becomes a good buy?  haha  it was down a little today, but everything was down today...
-Jason

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Offline Baiter

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2012, 11:40:00 PM »
Facebook was pretty smart.... they were flush with cash with no need for an IPO but was partially talked into it by investment bankers who make a fortune doing things like this.  Facebook agreed by offering a smaller % of public stock than most IPOs, still retaining quite a lot of voting shares by insiders, while allowing all their early shareholders a means to get hard cash for their stock.  That's the long way of saying that initially the IPO was supposed to be a lower price, but Facebook was in a position to push back on the investment bankers to bump up the price.  The higher IPO price benefits Facebook more than the bankers because the company gets the full $38/share, and the public investors get the after-market margins.  The initial IPO day was evidence that the pricing was fairly accurate, as the stock held steady... if it had rose significantly the first day, the investment bankers would have undervalued it and Facebook would have been robbed of capital, because that's what at investment bankers are good at.

Fast forward a day or two after that, and investors are a little perturbed because normally the better clients of the investment bankers (read: wealthiest) get IPO preference, and an IPO is normally like printing money... IPO at, for example $12, stock shoots to $20 that day, IPO shareholders cash out at least partially for a 50% gain in a day and life is good.  The rest of us poor SOB's have to purchase that stock on the open market at $20.  Well that didn't happen, and now the investors are left holding the bag, meaning they're upset they didn't make their easy money,

Since then, they have brought up lawsuits (if they can't make money for free, they will sue for it), claiming Facebook misrepresented their growth numbers, many sources of revenue were decelerating at a higher percentage than Facebook led on, they claim, for example ad revenue, and even more so Zynga's revenue.  As a result of the questions many other stock holders started getting antsy and thus you see the price drop $10/share from the IPO price.  Facebook doesn't really care, they played the game and won this round.

I always thought Facebook IPO'd at their peak.  Reality is that they're going to have to find other areas to grow into, rumors have them pointing to adding of search (purchasing Bing) and perhaps being forced into offering email service that allows its users to communicate outside of facebook, meaning it will look a lot more like Google.  Google is desperately trying to use its clout to bridge the gap to Facebook, so you may start seeing these companies become a duopoly in many spaces, like a Lowes/Home Depot peaceful coexistence.  Maybe Facebook has some room to grow, they have the users.  Fact is if you are buying Facebook stock you are doing it only because you believe in the vision of Mark Zuckerberg who, for all intents and purposes, is still the controller of the company, remaining the single largest shareholder and president of the company.

As for me, I still don't see the point in using Facebook so it would almost be a silly to think about purchasing stock, but I know plenty of people who live on it.  It'll be interesting to watch the pricing from here.

Offline mECHsLAVE

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2012, 05:00:43 PM »
Thanks for that info, good read.  It actually had it's first day of significant gain today to put it back over $30.

For the life of me I just don't understand FB's business model, or how the company is valued so highly.   How do they make money?   Just ad revenue? 

I've been on FB since 07 and I've never once clicked on an ad, installed an app, nothing.   I don't know of anyone who clicks on those dumb little ads, they're just a page border to me.  And even if the odd person does click on it, I have to assume most users are like me and just use it to post pics, interact a little, read what's going on in friends' lives who live far away, etc.  And it costs nothing.  I'm only an occasional FB user, and I know there are some fanatics who are on it 24/7, but even the fanatics.. how much can FB really make from those stupid little ugly ads that are so forgettable and easily overlooked.   

A huge userbase is great, but I just don't see where the huge profit comes from.   They are now the richest company in the US, is that right?  Wow.  Just feels like one big scam at this point.   Some were predicting FB would go down to $10-15/share.   It was headed there before this week, but we'll see.  And there's still those investigations and lawsuits to come...
-Jason

Saint Augustine, FL

Offline Greywolf

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2012, 10:42:21 PM »
I run Ad Muncher, so I see ZERO ads on any site. I believe their advertising model is paid on page views, not necessarily on click-throughs. If you think about the number of users on FB, if .01% of your ads are successful then you've probably got a homerun.

Offline mECHsLAVE

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2012, 10:35:06 AM »
Yeah, it has the page views no doubt. But at some point those views have to turn into real dollars for the advertisers, real purchases and transactions.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/foremski/the-flaws-in-the-facebookcomscore-social-ad-report/2320

It still seems like FB is overvalued, to me.   Maybe not, or they may be able to adapt.  But the whole IPO thing still screams scam to me. 
-Jason

Saint Augustine, FL

Offline Baiter

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2012, 10:25:03 PM »
Facebook's IPO is as much a scam as any other IPO.  Legalized gambling as commoners try to guess what the insiders know.

Facebook may be a fad, but it's got a lot of eyeballs and that is it entire value... you want to find someone, you go to Facebook.  However, most of the people I know see little value in using Facebook, but everyone sees value in using Google, and by all rights, Google is a lot better at the ad thing and are a bit more transparent at the privacy thing than Facebook.  They're not going away, the question is how do they grow from here when they've already saturated their market?  If you don't see that growth, then it's pointless to own the stock.

Offline mECHsLAVE

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2012, 11:18:31 AM »
Yeah, I don't see the growth, because they've already topped out and overvalued their stock evaluation.   

It only takes one misstep when trying to increase company profits to make a company bottom out and lose customers (Netflix).   Someone else can always come along and make what was previously the hottest place to be suddenly obsolete (myspace). 

I just don't see the investment value in FB, when it's already basically evaluated at the richest company in the country.  As you say, where's the growth potential?   Stock price holding steady because of a very favorable article in Forbes (wonder how much that cost them?).   We'll see where it's at this time next year... we might all be wishing we'd drank the koolaid! ;)
-Jason

Saint Augustine, FL

Offline klassic

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2012, 11:42:01 AM »
there are commercials on tv down here to sue facebook directly if you invested more than $50,000 in the IPO.


facebook is a fad. it will die. i hate it. such a stupid waste of time and effort. i said the same about myspace. i will say the same about MyOnlineLife.com. and so on...

Offline mECHsLAVE

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2012, 06:53:03 PM »
Another 6% loss today.    Will investors panic and cut their losses when it inevitably dips into the teens?    Will it eventually become a good buy? 
-Jason

Saint Augustine, FL

Offline Baiter

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2012, 11:43:07 PM »
Tough stock to speculate on.  I read an article last week that indicated Facebook has the lowest user satisfaction rating amongst all the major social networks (@61%), which include Twitter, Google Plus, etc.  They could fix things very quickly, but now that they're public they are going to be pushing for revenue increases, and most likely shoving even more ads to its users. 

I'd say it'll go lower before it goes higher... $14 is a safer point to consider buying.  Yea it's a 33% drop from here but you can almost bet it'll spring back for a quick 50% gain just on the elastic hype machine as long as the big investment houses keep a good stake in it rather than dumping it on on unwary consumers.  If they are doing that, then single digits will come quickly.

Offline mECHsLAVE

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Re: FB IPO?
« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2012, 03:19:37 PM »
Well, 2 strong days in a row after analysts were issuing buy recommendations at $15.  LOL  All artificial.

I think the CFO's and all the insider guys dumping 300,000 and 450,000 shares tells the story.   These are people who probably don't need the 5-10 Million right now, and know full well the implications of their stock dump with the scrutiny the company is under right now.  So they basically have ZERO faith in their own company.    I don't blame them.   Like I said, it felt like a scam on day one and has never felt any differently.   So the fact that tens of billions have been lost is kind of heart-warming.  :)

-Jason

Saint Augustine, FL